June 22, 2020
The recent deadly skirmish on the India/China/Kashmir border on Monday, June 15th, has everyone talking and most pundits puzzled. If you haven’t heard, tensions along the border have risen dramatically in the last few weeks with 20 Indian deaths and additional Chinese deaths in the Galwan Valley just that one day. This conflict could become a global conflict because there is more at stake than control of a desolate, largely uninhabited patch of earth at 20,000 feet.
On Monday, according to IndiaToday, Indian soldiers on patrol found a Chinese tent pitched on Indian territory. The Indians tore the tent down but were suspicious of Chinese intentions. They then marched onto Chinese territory to check their suspicions and IndiaToday reports the Indians encountered a larger group of Chinese combat troops not regularly found in this border region and three separate brawls took place. The second brawl caused most of the casualties and lasted about 45 minutes. The Indian Military provided a picture of some of the weapons used (See below). India maintains that its military thwarted a pending invasion of the region by China.
IndiaToday https://youtu.be/y7YNo1YyOFQ
All the pundits see this skirmish as a further escalation of complicated global political tensions resulting from China’s ongoing aggressive campaign to acquire new territory on many borders, ranging from the India/China border in the Kashmir Region to the South China Sea. However, the answer is very simple — the game is about water.
I know because I may be one of only 100 non-Chinese who has been close to the Galwan Valley. I traveled through the Aksai Chin Zone in 2010 as part of a photography trip. My journey took me from Kashgar, through the Kunlun Mountains and along the spine of the Himalayas to Lhasa, the capital of Tibet.
The Galwan Valley is located on the border of the Chinese region of Aksai Chin. I have traveled through Sub-Saharan Africa, vast reaches of Alaska and the desert southwest of the United States: I never been in a region so remote, so desolate, and so uncivilized. The region has no trees and very few plants. Most of the towns exist solely to serve truckers and are logically placed to provide fuel at strategic points. All the lodges or rooms are dirty shacks with no running water or toilets. Some of the towns serviced the Chinese Military with prostitutes and liquor. You generally had to do your daily personal business directly in an open area or open pit behind the lodging. I picked up fleas and lice. It is a very tough, demanding region.
So, why is the water in this god-forsaken region so important? South and east of the Galwan Valley lie the headwaters of the Ganges River. To the north and west lie the headwaters of the Indus River. The Siachen Glacier lies just inside the Indian-administered region of Ladakh and next to Aksai Chin and is the source of the Nubra river. Imagine the Colorado River, but instead of Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and California with some semblance of law, you have three hostile countries armed with nuclear weapons and anxious to maintain recent economic growth.
Source: BBC
Most Europeans and other folks from the Western Hemisphere are not familiar with the Siachen Glacier. Wikipedia informs us that the glacier is in the Karakoram Mountain Range, which is part of the Himalayas. Siachen is 47 miles long and is the second-longest glacier in the world’s non-polar areas. Per Wikipedia, “The Siachen Glacier lies immediately south of the great drainage divide that separates the Eurasian Plate from the Indian subcontinent.”
The Siachen Glacier system covers about 700 square kilometers when you include all its tributary glaciers. While the Siachen Glacier is the crown gem of the Karakoram Region, this entire drainage area is extensively glaciated and is sometimes called the “Third Pole.” It provides water to India, Pakistan, and the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of Western China.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siachen_Glacier
India and Pakistan fought over this region in a conflict that started in 1984 when India captured the glacier in Operation Meghdoot. The two countries reached a ceasefire agreement in 2003. In addition, this is the region that India stripped of its special status in October 2019. India shut down the internet and phones in the region, deployed more troops to the area, and placed public figures under arrest.
The strategic importance of this region is growing because of global warming; the loss of ice in the Himalayan glaciers has doubled during 2000–2016 relative to 1975–2000 studies. However, this shrinkage is patchy and uneven. In fact, a few glaciers have been growing in size.
The glaciers in the Siachen area are shrinking much faster because of military activity. The Siachen Glacier has come under assault from the Indian Army as it builds high-altitude camps to establish a permanent military presence above 20,000 feet. Both Pakistan and India have been building base camps and training centers in the area, but India has been particularly aggressive in building bunkers by cutting and melting the glacial ice with chemicals. This shrinkage is in direct contrast to falling temperatures and expanding glaciers in the neighboring Gilgit-Baltistan region where there has been no military activity.
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/6/eaav7266
It is truly amazing that Indian Forces have been so reckless with the glacier given its importance. The rivers fed by the glacier have become polluted and difficult to control as the ice melts at an accelerating rate. The troops have been firing munitions, dumping non-biodegradable waste, and dangerous chemicals into the glacier (see the Wikipedia reference above). Some estimate that the Indian Army is dumping about 1,000 kilograms (1.1 tons) trash a day on the glacier.
This conflict is about the control of water for food, energy, and the livelihood of the vast populations in South Asia. It is about the future growth of three countries with nuclear weapons. This conflict is not going away and will only escalate as China sides with Pakistan and Kashmir to acquire more water for its growing economy and its plans to mine strategic minerals in Tibet. The situation has all the ingredients to become a major armed global conflict.
Vernon H. Budinger, CFA, CAIA
Owner
Neural Profit Engines
Vernon@neuralprofitengines.com
www.neuralprofitengines.com