Interest rate analysis 11/6/2022:

1. Interest rates are not high, they are returning to averages seen over the last 30 to 60 years.

2. Interest rates have been much too low for too long over the past 5 years.

3. The real interest rate story is the inversion of the yield curve, U.S. Treasury Bonds maturing in 2 years now yield more than Treasuries maturing in 10 years.

4. A recession has occurred every time the yield curve has inverted and yields have risen more than 2% over the last 50 years.

5. The average time lapse between a yield curve inversion and a recession is 13 months, the yield curve inverted in July of this year - this means that we should see the economy enter a recession by August 2023.